AEK Athens FC 2-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AEK Athens FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis plays host to AEK Athens FC versus Aris Thessalonikis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
AEK Athens FC (all games): 5W 1D 1L across 7 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.29 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.29 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. AEK Athens FC have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AEK Athens FC's home record at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis: 3W 0D 0L from 3 Super League 1 appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 3 home games (100%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.29 — AEK Athens FC are significantly better at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis than their overall form suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis have collected 2.00 PPG across 7 Super League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 1L. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 0.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.43 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 7 games (57%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Aris Thessalonikis have posted 2W 0D 1L from 3 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.29 for AEK Athens FC, 2.00 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AEK Athens FC 43% versus Aris Thessalonikis 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AEK Athens FC 71% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AEK Athens FC 1.36 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AEK Athens FC attack 1.244 / defence 0.844 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.859 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.164. Data: 7 AEK Athens FC games / 7 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 47% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%. Fair-value odds: AEK Athens FC 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.76. AEK Athens FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AEK Athens FC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: AEK Athens FC 0% | Aris Thessalonikis 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AEK Athens FC 47% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG AEK Athens FC 1.36 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: AEK Athens FC attack 1.244 / def 0.844 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.859 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
AEK Athens FC xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Aris Thessalonikis xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC 2 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives AEK Athens FC a 47% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis in?
AEK Athens FC (all comps): 5W-1D-1L in 7 | 2.29 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 0.43 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AEK Athens FC's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Aris Thessalonikis's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.86x) against AEK Athens FC's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
47%
2.14
32%
3.08
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
AEK Athens FC xG
Total xG
2.21
0.84
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
5%
18.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for AEK Athens FC and 0.84 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, AEK Athens FC have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 5W 1D 1L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.29 PPG for AEK Athens FC against 2.00 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AEK Athens FC have posted 3.00 PPG from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.29 PPG overall — AEK Athens FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AEK Athens FC are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.43 scored and 0.43 conceded. AEK Athens FC's scoring rate against Aris Thessalonikis's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AEK Athens FC
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 games (2.29 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AEK Athens FC at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
AEK Athens FC's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AEK Athens FC at home: 3.00 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 2.00 PPG.
Have AEK Athens FC or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 11 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AEK Athens FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AEK Athens FC
3
Draws
0
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, AEK Athens FC have won 7, Aris Thessalonikis have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 11 January 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (AEK Athens FC) and 33% (Aris Thessalonikis) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (AEK Athens FC) and 33% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC keep a clean sheet in 100% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 33%; Aris Thessalonikis in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AEK Athens FC home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AEK Athens FC play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of AEK Athens FC's recent matches and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of AEK Athens FC's recent games and 33% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
AEK Athens FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out Aris Thessalonikis 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 8, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AEK Athens FC 1.36 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.84 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AEK Athens FC attack 1.24 / defence 0.84 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AEK Athens FC 47% | Draw 32% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AEK Athens FC 71%, Aris Thessalonikis 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AEK Athens FC 2.29 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AEK Athens FC win broke the near-deadlock. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.