Werder Bremen 0-2 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Werder Bremen host VfL Wolfsburg at wohninvest WESERSTADION in Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Werder Bremen stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Werder Bremen at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 0W 6D 4L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Werder Bremen have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Werder Bremen's games and 60% of VfL Wolfsburg's (from Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Werder Bremen have won 1, VfL Wolfsburg 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Werder Bremen 2–2 VfL Wolfsburg — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Werder Bremen in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Werder Bremen 65% and VfL Wolfsburg 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 63% | VfL Wolfsburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 1.66 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.935 / defence 1.042 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.790 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.389. VfL Wolfsburg's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 60 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 60.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 48% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 25%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 2.09 | Draw 3.64 | VfL Wolfsburg 4.04. Werder Bremen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 70% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 48% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Werder Bremen 1.66 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.935 / def 1.042 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.790 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
VfL Wolfsburg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg FAQs
What time does Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Werder Bremen 0 - 2 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 48% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Werder Bremen's attack rating (0.94) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Werder Bremen's last 60 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.64
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.80
1.14
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
5%
21.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.14 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Werder Bremen come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 12D 30L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.23 PPG from 60 outings (19W 17D 24L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.10 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Werder Bremen's home form reads 10W 5D 15L across their last 30 home games, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 6D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
Werder Bremen (Home) vs VfL Wolfsburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Werder Bremen
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg Form FAQs
What form are Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 18W 12D 30L in their last 60 games (1.10 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 19W 17D 24L in their last 60 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.17 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from November 2020. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Werder Bremen have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Werder Bremen
2
Draws
4
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Werder Bremen have won 4, VfL Wolfsburg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: VfL Wolfsburg 0-1 Werder Bremen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 67%, VfL Wolfsburg 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Werder Bremen) and 47% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Werder Bremen vs VfL Wolfsburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Werder Bremen's games and 43% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Werder Bremen's matches and 47% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do Werder Bremen and VfL Wolfsburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 73% of VfL Wolfsburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Werder Bremen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Werder Bremen 0-2 at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 1.66 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.14 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen fell 1.7 short of their projected output. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 48% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 25%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a VfL Wolfsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Werder Bremen 63%, VfL Wolfsburg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Werder Bremen's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Werder Bremen 1.10 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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