RB Leipzig 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 72% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees FSV Mainz 05 travel to Leipzig Stadium to take on RB Leipzig. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, RB Leipzig have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig at Leipzig Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Leipzig Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — RB Leipzig are significantly better at Leipzig Stadium than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
RB Leipzig carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for RB Leipzig, 3 for FSV Mainz 05 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with FSV Mainz 05 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RB Leipzig 58% and FSV Mainz 05 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Leipzig 68% | FSV Mainz 05 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Leipzig 2.48 xG and FSV Mainz 05 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Leipzig attack 1.151 / defence 0.757 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.802 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.389. FSV Mainz 05 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing RB Leipzig's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. RB Leipzig's defence rating of 0.757 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 RB Leipzig games / 60 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Leipzig 72% | Draw 18% | FSV Mainz 05 10%. Fair-value odds: RB Leipzig 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | FSV Mainz 05 10.00. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
FSV Mainz 05 lead the H2H ledger, but RB Leipzig carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates RB Leipzig as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: RB Leipzig 40% | FSV Mainz 05 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Leipzig Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Leipzig 72% | Draw 18% | FSV Mainz 05 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 53% | xG RB Leipzig 2.48 / FSV Mainz 05 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: RB Leipzig attack 1.151 / def 0.757 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.802 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
RB Leipzig xG
Expected Goals
0.84
FSV Mainz 05 xG
53%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Leipzig Stadium.
What was the final score in RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?
RB Leipzig 0 - 0 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Leipzig Stadium.
What competition is RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives RB Leipzig a 72% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (5 meetings): RB Leipzig 1W | Draws 1 | FSV Mainz 05 3W.
What form are RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05 in?
RB Leipzig (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from RB Leipzig's attack rating (1.15) and FSV Mainz 05's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus RB Leipzig's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
72%
1.38
18%
5.52
10%
10.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
3 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
RB Leipzig xG
Total xG
3.33
0.84
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.52
18%
Draw
10.35
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
8%
11.99
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
1%
124.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for RB Leipzig and 0.84 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, RB Leipzig have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 35W 10D 15L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FSV Mainz 05's form line: 15W 20D 25L from 60 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FSV Mainz 05.
Venue Form
On home soil, RB Leipzig have posted 2.33 PPG from 30 outings (22W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — RB Leipzig are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 6W 10D 14L from 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Leipzig come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
RB Leipzig are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.27 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Leipzig
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
RB Leipzig have gone 35W 10D 15L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 15W 20D 25L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Leipzig at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
RB Leipzig's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Leipzig at home: 2.33 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.93 PPG.
Have RB Leipzig or FSV Mainz 05 been keeping clean sheets recently?
RB Leipzig have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, FSV Mainz 05 in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Jan 2022, when RB Leipzig won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RB Leipzig's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
5
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, RB Leipzig have won 3, FSV Mainz 05 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when RB Leipzig 1-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Leipzig 53%, FSV Mainz 05 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for RB Leipzig and 63% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Leipzig home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Leipzig play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of RB Leipzig's games and 67% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of RB Leipzig's matches and 63% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
RB Leipzig have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at RB Leipzig's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig and FSV Mainz 05 finished level at 0-0 at Leipzig Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Leipzig 2.48 xG and FSV Mainz 05 0.84 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. RB Leipzig fell 2.5 short of their projected output. FSV Mainz 05 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Leipzig attack 1.15 / defence 0.76 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.80 / defence 1.28, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Leipzig 72% | Draw 18% | FSV Mainz 05 10%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 72%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Leipzig 68%, FSV Mainz 05 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Leipzig's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.