Werder Bremen 0-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 55%, yet in-form Werder Bremen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Werder Bremen vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

SC Freiburg make the trip to Weserstadion to face Werder Bremen in Bundesliga (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Werder Bremen have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Werder Bremen's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

SC Freiburg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SC Freiburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form ledger tips toward Werder Bremen. A 0.70 PPG lead over SC Freiburg (1.90 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, SC Freiburg edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2024, ended Werder Bremen 3–1 SC Freiburg — a Werder Bremen win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 59% versus SC Freiburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 62% | SC Freiburg 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 0.99 xG and SC Freiburg 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.716 / defence 1.104 | SC Freiburg attack 0.981 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.680. Werder Bremen's attack rating of 0.716 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Werder Bremen's last 39 games and SC Freiburg's last 39.

Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 18% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 55%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 5.54 | Draw 3.66 | SC Freiburg 1.83. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Werder Bremen (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Werder Bremen's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Werder Bremen 70% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights