VfL Bochum 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VfL Wolfsburg (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfL Bochum face VfL Wolfsburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VfL Bochum host VfL Wolfsburg at Vonovia Ruhrstadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
VfL Bochum — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. VfL Bochum have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Bochum's home record at Vonovia Ruhrstadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. VfL Wolfsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
VfL Wolfsburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. VfL Wolfsburg are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for VfL Bochum, 4 for VfL Wolfsburg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with VfL Wolfsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VfL Bochum in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
VfL Wolfsburg in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfL Bochum 67% and VfL Wolfsburg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfL Bochum 67% | VfL Wolfsburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfL Bochum 1.54 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfL Bochum attack 0.851 / defence 1.137 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.992 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.703 / away 1.680. Data: 39 VfL Bochum games / 39 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfL Bochum 30% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 44%. Fair-value odds: VfL Bochum 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.90) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, VfL Wolfsburg are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: VfL Bochum 70% | VfL Wolfsburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfL Bochum 30% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 69% | xG VfL Bochum 1.54 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: VfL Bochum attack 0.851 / def 1.137 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.992 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.703 / away 1.680 • Poisson stance: VfL Wolfsburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
VfL Bochum xG
Expected Goals
1.90
VfL Wolfsburg xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What was the final score in VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Bochum 1 - 3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.
What competition is VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives VfL Bochum a 30% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making VfL Wolfsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (6 meetings): VfL Bochum 2W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 4W.
What form are VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg in?
VfL Bochum (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VfL Bochum's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against VfL Wolfsburg's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus VfL Bochum's defence, projects 1.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfL Wolfsburg Win
30%
3.37
26%
3.84
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
VfL Bochum xG
Total xG
3.43
1.90
VfL Wolfsburg xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
15%
6.65
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
4%
22.43
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for VfL Bochum and 1.90 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VfL Bochum come into this having played 39 games, going 8W 12D 19L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for VfL Bochum, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.05 PPG from 39 outings (11W 8D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfL Bochum on 0.92 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
VfL Bochum's home form reads 5W 8D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (5W 3D 11L).
The Goals Picture
VfL Bochum are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.31 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfL Bochum have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfL Bochum
Early Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
VfL Bochum have gone 8W 12D 19L in their last 39 games (0.92 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 11W 8D 20L in their last 39 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfL Bochum at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
VfL Bochum's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfL Bochum at home: 1.21 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2022, when VfL Wolfsburg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfL Bochum's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
VfL Bochum
1
Draws
5
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 8 meetings on record, VfL Bochum have won 2, VfL Wolfsburg have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-1 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg?
VfL Wolfsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfL Bochum 74%, VfL Wolfsburg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (VfL Bochum) and 53% (VfL Wolfsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Wolfsburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfL Bochum home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfL Bochum play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of VfL Bochum's games and 53% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfL Bochum vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of VfL Bochum's matches and 53% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do VfL Bochum and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
VfL Bochum have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfL Bochum.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat VfL Bochum 1-3 at Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfL Bochum 1.54 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.90 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 1.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfL Bochum attack 0.85 / defence 1.14 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfL Bochum 30% | Draw 26% | VfL Wolfsburg 44%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfL Bochum 67%, VfL Wolfsburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfL Bochum's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfL Bochum 0.92 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.