Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Werder Bremen at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Borussia Mönchengladbach travel to Weserstadion to take on Werder Bremen. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 November 2026, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's home record at Weserstadion: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Werder Bremen are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Werder Bremen register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Werder Bremen, 4 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Werder Bremen in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Werder Bremen 55% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Werder Bremen 57% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 2.29 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 1.042 / defence 1.000 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. Data: 42 Werder Bremen games / 42 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 59% | Draw 20% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 21%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 1.69 | Draw 5.00 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Werder Bremen (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.29 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Borussia Mönchengladbach lead the H2H ledger, but Werder Bremen carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Werder Bremen as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.60 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Werder Bremen 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Weserstadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 59% | Draw 20% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 66% | xG Werder Bremen 2.29 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 1.042 / def 1.000 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.29
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is scheduled to kick off at 19:30 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Weserstadion.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Weserstadion.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 59% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 21% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (10 meetings): Werder Bremen 2W | Draws 4 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 4W.
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 1.04x the league average against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus Werder Bremen's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
59%
1.70
20%
4.92
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.29
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
3.60
1.31
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.92
20%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
10%
9.87
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
2%
47.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 2.29 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.31 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Werder Bremen's recent record stands at 12W 11D 19L from 42 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach, meanwhile, have gone 10W 12D 20L across 42 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Werder Bremen on 1.12 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Werder Bremen have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record stands at 4W 5D 12L across 21 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Werder Bremen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Werder Bremen are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.26 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Werder Bremen have gone 12W 11D 19L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Werder Bremen at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Werder Bremen's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Werder Bremen at home: 1.38 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Werder Bremen or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Werder Bremen have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Werder Bremen won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Werder Bremen's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Werder Bremen
4
Draws
4
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 2, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Werder Bremen 52%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Werder Bremen) and 62% (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen have failed to score in 29% of games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Werder Bremen play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Werder Bremen's recent matches and 48% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Werder Bremen vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Werder Bremen's matches and 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Werder Bremen and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Werder Bremen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.