VfB Stuttgart 1-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to MHPArena to face VfB Stuttgart in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
VfB Stuttgart have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Werder Bremen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Werder Bremen away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Werder Bremen are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — VfB Stuttgart lead 3W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 61% versus Werder Bremen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 73% | Werder Bremen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.97 xG and Werder Bremen 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.224 / defence 1.188 | Werder Bremen attack 1.066 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.435. Data: 62 VfB Stuttgart games / 62 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 22% | Werder Bremen 36%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 2.38 | Draw 4.55 | Werder Bremen 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Werder Bremen (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Werder Bremen 30%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 22% | Werder Bremen 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 72% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.97 / Werder Bremen 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.224 / def 1.188 | Werder Bremen attack 1.066 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Werder Bremen xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 42% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 36% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
Record (7 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 3W | Draws 2 | Werder Bremen 2W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.22) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.07x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.0%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
42%
2.38
22%
4.54
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
3.79
1.82
Werder Bremen xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
7%
14.64
5%
19.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.82 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 34W 11D 17L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Werder Bremen's form line: 22W 15D 25L from 62 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Werder Bremen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2.00 PPG from 31 outings (19W 5D 7L).
On the road, Werder Bremen have gone 11W 7D 13L from 31 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.50 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
Werder Bremen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 34W 11D 17L in their last 62 games (1.82 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 22W 15D 25L in their last 62 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Werder Bremen away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.00 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 0-4 on 14 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
VfB Stuttgart
3
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen?
VfB Stuttgart have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 68%, Werder Bremen 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for VfB Stuttgart and 58% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 52% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 58% of Werder Bremen's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat VfB Stuttgart 1-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.97 xG and Werder Bremen 1.82 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.22 / defence 1.19 against Werder Bremen attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 42% | Draw 22% | Werder Bremen 36%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Werder Bremen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 73%, Werder Bremen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Werder Bremen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.58 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.