VfB Stuttgart 3-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates VfB Stuttgart at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MHPArena plays host to VfB Stuttgart versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 6 December 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MHPArena, VfB Stuttgart have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — VfB Stuttgart are significantly better at MHPArena than their overall form suggests.
Union Berlin have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for VfB Stuttgart, 1.20 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 2W, Union Berlin 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 2–0 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 61% versus Union Berlin 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 74% | Union Berlin 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.63 xG and Union Berlin 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.200 / defence 0.979 | Union Berlin attack 0.633 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.453. Data: 46 VfB Stuttgart games / 46 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 52% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 18%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Union Berlin 5.56. VfB Stuttgart hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on VfB Stuttgart if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Union Berlin 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 52% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.63 / Union Berlin 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.200 / def 0.979 | Union Berlin attack 0.633 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: VfB Stuttgart (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Union Berlin xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 6 December 2024 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
VfB Stuttgart 3 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 52% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 18% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making VfB Stuttgart the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin?
Record (6 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 2W | Draws 2 | Union Berlin 2W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.20) and Union Berlin's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.63x) against VfB Stuttgart's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VfB Stuttgart Win
52%
1.93
30%
3.32
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.53
0.90
Union Berlin xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
28.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 0.90 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 27W 9D 10L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin's form line: 13W 10D 23L from 46 games, 1.07 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, VfB Stuttgart are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2.30 PPG from 23 outings (16W 5D 2L).
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 3W 6D 14L from 23 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VfB Stuttgart come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 0.93 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 27W 9D 10L in their last 46 games (1.96 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 13W 10D 23L in their last 46 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Union Berlin away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.30 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.65 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 3-0 on 1 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, VfB Stuttgart have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
VfB Stuttgart
4
Draws
3
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 3, Union Berlin have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VfB Stuttgart 65%, Union Berlin 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (VfB Stuttgart) and 30% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Union Berlin in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of VfB Stuttgart's recent matches and 26% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 74% of VfB Stuttgart's recent games and 30% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Union Berlin tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out Union Berlin 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Union Berlin 3-2 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.63 xG and Union Berlin 0.90 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Union Berlin attack 0.63 / defence 0.82, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 52% | Draw 30% | Union Berlin 18%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 74%, Union Berlin 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Union Berlin's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.61 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.