VfB Stuttgart 3-0 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this VfB Stuttgart vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.

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Match Analysis

VfB Stuttgart host Eintracht Frankfurt at Stuttgart Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, VfB Stuttgart stand at 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

VfB Stuttgart's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Eintracht Frankfurt — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

On current form, VfB Stuttgart have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.60 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 60% of Eintracht Frankfurt's (from VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for VfB Stuttgart, 2 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended VfB Stuttgart 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt — a VfB Stuttgart win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VfB Stuttgart 64% and Eintracht Frankfurt 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VfB Stuttgart 68% | Eintracht Frankfurt 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 2.56 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.382 / defence 0.968 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.986 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.399. VfB Stuttgart carry an above-average attack rating of 1.382 — their 2.56 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from VfB Stuttgart's last 62 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 62.

Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 63% | Draw 20% | Eintracht Frankfurt 17%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | Eintracht Frankfurt 5.82. The model has a clear lean to VfB Stuttgart (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.90. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.90 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.56 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates VfB Stuttgart as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (VfB Stuttgart's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: VfB Stuttgart 70% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Frankfurt 60% (last 10 away games).

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