FSV Mainz 05 4-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FSV Mainz 05 face 1899 Hoffenheim.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 host 1899 Hoffenheim at MEWA ARENA in Bundesliga (matchday 29). Kick-off is Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Guide
FSV Mainz 05 — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FSV Mainz 05 at 1.20 PPG versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, FSV Mainz 05 have won 3, 1899 Hoffenheim 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended FSV Mainz 05 1–1 1899 Hoffenheim — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FSV Mainz 05 60% and 1899 Hoffenheim 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 55% | 1899 Hoffenheim 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 1.69 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.886 / defence 0.752 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.116 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.422. FSV Mainz 05 have a tight defence (rating 0.752), which is pulling 1899 Hoffenheim's projected output down. Data: built from FSV Mainz 05's last 62 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 62.
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 47% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 2.11 | Draw 3.64 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3.97. FSV Mainz 05 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FSV Mainz 05 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FSV Mainz 05's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FSV Mainz 05 30% (last 10 home games) | 1899 Hoffenheim 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 29 | Venue: MEWA ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 47% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG FSV Mainz 05 1.69 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.886 / def 0.752 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.116 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.19
1899 Hoffenheim xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim FAQs
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at MEWA ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
FSV Mainz 05 4 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at MEWA ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 29) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 47% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.89) and 1899 Hoffenheim's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus FSV Mainz 05's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FSV Mainz 05's last 62 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.64
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.89
1.19
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
18%
5.44
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
5%
21.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.19 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 62 games, going 16W 21D 25L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 1.16 PPG from 62 outings (20W 12D 30L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FSV Mainz 05 on 1.11 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 10W 10D 11L across their last 31 home games, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 31 away games (9W 6D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.55 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim in 76%.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Current Season
FSV Mainz 05 (Home) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FSV Mainz 05
Current Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Current Season
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim Form FAQs
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 16W 21D 25L in their last 62 games (1.11 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 20W 12D 30L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 1.29 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from September 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Sep 2022, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 1899 Hoffenheim 4-1 FSV Mainz 05.
FSV Mainz 05's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FSV Mainz 05
2
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FSV Mainz 05 have won 6, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 FSV Mainz 05.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim?
FSV Mainz 05 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 55%, 1899 Hoffenheim 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FSV Mainz 05) and 68% (1899 Hoffenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 74% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of FSV Mainz 05's matches and 68% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and 1899 Hoffenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 87% of 1899 Hoffenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FSV Mainz 05 run riot with a 4-1 hammering of 1899 Hoffenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat 1899 Hoffenheim 4-1 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 29, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.69 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.19 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.89 / defence 0.75 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.12 / defence 1.18, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 47% | Draw 27% | 1899 Hoffenheim 25%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 55%, 1899 Hoffenheim 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.11 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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