VfB Stuttgart 1-3 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayern München (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VfB Stuttgart face Bayern München.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 24 as VfB Stuttgart welcome Bayern München to MHPArena. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, VfB Stuttgart stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfB Stuttgart at MHPArena this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayern München — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bayern München have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bayern München are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for VfB Stuttgart, 3 for Bayern München and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 0–4 with Bayern München winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
VfB Stuttgart in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — VfB Stuttgart 61% versus Bayern München 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (VfB Stuttgart 72% | Bayern München 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VfB Stuttgart 1.19 xG and Bayern München 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.080 / defence 1.037 | Bayern München attack 1.251 / defence 0.655. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.333. Bayern München's defence strength of 0.655 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 VfB Stuttgart games / 57 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 25% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 48%. Fair-value odds: VfB Stuttgart 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Bayern München 2.08. Bayern München hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: VfB Stuttgart 70% | Bayern München 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: MHPArena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Feb 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VfB Stuttgart 25% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG VfB Stuttgart 1.19 / Bayern München 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: VfB Stuttgart attack 1.080 / def 1.037 | Bayern München attack 1.251 / def 0.655 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
VfB Stuttgart xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Bayern München xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München kick off?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 February 2025 at MHPArena.
What was the final score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
VfB Stuttgart 1 - 3 Bayern München.
Where is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at MHPArena.
What competition is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München part of?
VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives VfB Stuttgart a 25% chance of winning, Bayern München a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München?
Record (6 meetings): VfB Stuttgart 1W | Draws 2 | Bayern München 3W.
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München in?
VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Bayern München (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from VfB Stuttgart's attack rating (1.08) and Bayern München's defence rating (0.66), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus VfB Stuttgart's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
25%
4.07
27%
3.71
48%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
VfB Stuttgart xG
Total xG
2.92
1.73
Bayern München xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.06
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
4%
22.93
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for VfB Stuttgart and 1.73 for Bayern München, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, VfB Stuttgart have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 33W 10D 14L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München's form line: 41W 7D 9L from 57 games, 2.28 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: VfB Stuttgart on 1.91 PPG, Bayern München on 2.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, VfB Stuttgart have posted 2.11 PPG from 28 outings (18W 5D 5L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 16W 5D 7L from 28 away games — 1.89 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
VfB Stuttgart are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.86 scored and 1.12 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bayern München in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München in coming into this match?
VfB Stuttgart have gone 33W 10D 14L in their last 57 games (1.91 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 41W 7D 9L in their last 57 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VfB Stuttgart at home or Bayern München away?
VfB Stuttgart's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VfB Stuttgart at home: 2.11 PPG; Bayern München away: 1.89 PPG.
Have VfB Stuttgart or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
VfB Stuttgart have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bayern München in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Bayern München have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2025, when Bayern München won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VfB Stuttgart's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
VfB Stuttgart
2
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, VfB Stuttgart have won 1, Bayern München have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Bayern München 5-1 VfB Stuttgart.
Who has won more matches between VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — VfB Stuttgart at 68%, Bayern München at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for VfB Stuttgart and 82% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VfB Stuttgart home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VfB Stuttgart play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of VfB Stuttgart's games and 68% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of VfB Stuttgart's matches and 82% of Bayern München's.
Do VfB Stuttgart and Bayern München tend to score early?
VfB Stuttgart have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayern München cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over VfB Stuttgart.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat VfB Stuttgart 1-3 at MHPArena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VfB Stuttgart 1.19 xG and Bayern München 1.73 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bayern München outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VfB Stuttgart attack 1.08 / defence 1.04 against Bayern München attack 1.25 / defence 0.66, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VfB Stuttgart 25% | Draw 27% | Bayern München 48%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VfB Stuttgart 72%, Bayern München 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — VfB Stuttgart 1.91 PPG, Bayern München 2.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayern München win broke the near-deadlock. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.