Union Berlin 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (matchday 28). Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Union Berlin's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 9W 1D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 1.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Bayer Leverkusen edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Union Berlin 0–4 Bayer Leverkusen — a Bayer Leverkusen win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 43% versus Bayer Leverkusen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 48% | Bayer Leverkusen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.09 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.897 / defence 0.933 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.257 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.432. Bayer Leverkusen bring a tight defence (rating 0.758, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Union Berlin's projected output down. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack rating of 1.257, which lifts their away xG to 1.68. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 61 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 61.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 22% | Draw 29% | Bayer Leverkusen 49%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 4.51 | Draw 3.45 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.05. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 40% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 22% | Draw 29% | Bayer Leverkusen 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Union Berlin 1.09 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.897 / def 0.933 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.257 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.600 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Bayer Leverkusen xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Union Berlin 0 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 28) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 22% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.26x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 61 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
22%
4.51
29%
3.45
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.77
1.68
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.51
22%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
4%
24.22
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.68 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.49 PPG on a 26W 13D 22L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 37W 12D 12L from 61 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 30 home games (17W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.49 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 17W 7D 6L from their last 30 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.05 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 26W 13D 22L in their last 61 games (1.49 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 37W 12D 12L in their last 61 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.97 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 Union Berlin on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
3
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 47%, Bayer Leverkusen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Union Berlin) and 63% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 33%; Union Berlin have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Union Berlin's matches and 63% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 77% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out Union Berlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Union Berlin 0-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.09 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.68 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Union Berlin fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.90 / defence 0.93 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.26 / defence 0.76, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 22% | Draw 29% | Bayer Leverkusen 49%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 48%, Bayer Leverkusen 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.49. Form held, and they took the win. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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