1. FC Köln 2-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Köln face VfL Bochum.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum meet at Cologne Stadium in Bundesliga (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Current Form

1. FC Köln's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Köln have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

VfL Bochum have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

VfL Bochum away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 0.90 for VfL Bochum. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for 1. FC Köln, 1 for VfL Bochum and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1. FC Köln 1–1 VfL Bochum — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

VfL Bochum half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 56% versus VfL Bochum 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 43% | VfL Bochum 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.47 xG and VfL Bochum 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.664 / defence 1.162 | VfL Bochum attack 0.761 / defence 1.381. League average goals — home 1.600 / away 1.432. 1. FC Köln's attack rating of 0.664 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.47. VfL Bochum's defence rating of 1.381 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Köln's projected output up. VfL Bochum's attack rating of 0.761 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.27. Data: built from 1. FC Köln's last 61 games and VfL Bochum's last 61.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 39% | Draw 31% | VfL Bochum 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.54 | Draw 3.27 | VfL Bochum 3.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, 1. FC Köln are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: 1. FC Köln 40% (last 10 home games) | VfL Bochum 60% (last 10 away games).

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