SC Freiburg 1-4 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 28 as SC Freiburg welcome Borussia Dortmund to Europa-Park Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 April 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg at Europa-Park Stadion this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SC Freiburg are significantly better at Europa-Park Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (SC Freiburg) versus 1.30 (Borussia Dortmund). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Freiburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Borussia Dortmund in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Borussia Dortmund have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 7 encounters against SC Freiburg's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–4 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Borussia Dortmund have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 56% versus Borussia Dortmund 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 64% | Borussia Dortmund 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.93 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.091 / defence 0.861 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.843 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.422. Data: 61 SC Freiburg games / 61 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 20%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Borussia Dortmund 5.00. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Freiburg are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG SC Freiburg 1.93 / Borussia Dortmund 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.091 / def 0.861 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.843 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Borussia Dortmund xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
SC Freiburg 1 - 4 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 58% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (7 meetings): SC Freiburg 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 6W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Freiburg's attack at 1.09x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Dortmund's attack versus SC Freiburg's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.51
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
2.96
1.03
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
14%
6.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
3%
35.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.3 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.03 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, SC Freiburg have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 23W 15D 23L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 29W 14D 18L from 61 games, 1.66 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Freiburg on 1.38 PPG, Borussia Dortmund on 1.66. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Freiburg have posted 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (13W 9D 8L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 11W 8D 11L from 30 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 1.90 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 64%.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 23W 15D 23L in their last 61 games (1.38 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 29W 14D 18L in their last 61 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.60 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.37 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Freiburg's record when hosting Borussia Dortmund specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
SC Freiburg
1
Draws
8
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 4-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Freiburg at 70%, Borussia Dortmund at 63%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Freiburg and 57% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of SC Freiburg's games and 63% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Freiburg's matches and 57% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do SC Freiburg and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SC Freiburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat SC Freiburg 1-4 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.93 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.03 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. SC Freiburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Borussia Dortmund outscored their 1.03 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 58% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 20%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Borussia Dortmund win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 64%, Borussia Dortmund 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.38 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.