Holstein Kiel 5-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Augsburg at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Holstein Kiel welcome FC Augsburg to Holstein-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel at Holstein-Stadion this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Augsburg are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Holstein Kiel trading profile (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Augsburg trading profile (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 56% and FC Augsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 60% | FC Augsburg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.02 xG and FC Augsburg 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.520 / defence 1.334 | FC Augsburg attack 0.792 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.671 / away 1.487. Holstein Kiel's attack strength of 0.520 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Holstein Kiel games / 48 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 22% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 47%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 4.55 | Draw 3.23 | FC Augsburg 2.13. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 40% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 22% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.02 / FC Augsburg 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.520 / def 1.334 | FC Augsburg attack 0.792 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.671 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.57
FC Augsburg xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg?
Holstein Kiel 5 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg part of?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 22% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 47% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Holstein Kiel and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC Augsburg in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (0.52x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
22%
4.64
31%
3.20
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.59
1.57
FC Augsburg xG
4.64
22%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
4%
22.32
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.57 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Holstein Kiel come into this having played 48 games, going 22W 7D 19L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.15 PPG from 48 outings (14W 13D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 1.52 PPG, FC Augsburg on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Holstein Kiel's home form reads 9W 2D 12L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.74 points per game from 23 outings (4W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Augsburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.38 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 22W 7D 19L in their last 48 games (1.52 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 13D 21L in their last 48 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or FC Augsburg away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.26 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Holstein Kiel
0
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC Augsburg?
From 2 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 2, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when FC Augsburg 1-3 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and FC Augsburg?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 52%, FC Augsburg 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Holstein Kiel and 70% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Holstein Kiel's games and 61% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 70% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Holstein Kiel and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Holstein Kiel run riot with a 5-1 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat FC Augsburg 5-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.02 xG and FC Augsburg 1.57 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Holstein Kiel beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.52 / defence 1.33 against FC Augsburg attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 22% | Draw 31% | FC Augsburg 47%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Holstein Kiel win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 60%, FC Augsburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.52 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.