1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Heidenheim face Eintracht Frankfurt.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Eintracht Frankfurt travel to Voith-Arena to take on 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.70 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1 for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 0–2 Eintracht Frankfurt — a Eintracht Frankfurt win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 56% and Eintracht Frankfurt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 56% | Eintracht Frankfurt 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.62 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.881 / defence 1.107 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.059 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.257. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 23 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 57.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.52 | Draw 3.68 | Eintracht Frankfurt 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.62 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Frankfurt 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.62 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.881 / def 1.107 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.059 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.663 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 40% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Eintracht Frankfurt's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 23 games and Eintracht Frankfurt's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.68
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.09
1.47
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
7%
15.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.47 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 17D 14L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D.
On the other side, Eintracht Frankfurt sit at 1.47 PPG from 57 outings (21W 21D 15L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.67 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 17W 7D 4L across their last 28 home games, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Eintracht Frankfurt have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 28 away games (7W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.65 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 65%.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 26W 17D 14L in their last 57 games (1.67 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 21W 21D 15L in their last 57 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.07 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.11 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Eintracht Frankfurt been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Eintracht Frankfurt in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Dec 2024, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 1. FC Heidenheim 0-4 Eintracht Frankfurt.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
5
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 68% for Eintracht Frankfurt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs Eintracht Frankfurt Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Eintracht Frankfurt matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 82% of Eintracht Frankfurt's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Eintracht Frankfurt defy the odds to beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-2 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.62 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.88 / defence 1.11 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Frankfurt 33%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Eintracht Frankfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 56%, Eintracht Frankfurt 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.67 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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