FC Augsburg 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Augsburg face 1. FC Heidenheim.

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Analysis

1. FC Heidenheim make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga (matchday 25). The match kicks off on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 14:30 UK time.

Current Form

FC Augsburg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC Augsburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.40 for 1. FC Heidenheim. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 90% of FC Augsburg's games and 80% of 1. FC Heidenheim's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, FC Augsburg edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 7.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended FC Augsburg 5–2 1. FC Heidenheim — a FC Augsburg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 66% and 1. FC Heidenheim 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 59% | 1. FC Heidenheim 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Augsburg surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while 1. FC Heidenheim have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.77 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.993 / defence 1.076 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.958 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.332. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 58 games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 24.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 45% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 28%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.20 | Draw 3.79 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.55. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.77 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 90% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Heidenheim 80% (last 10 away games).

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