1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees 1899 Hoffenheim travel to Voith-Arena to take on 1. FC Heidenheim. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Voith-Arena, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Heidenheim at 1.40 PPG versus 1899 Hoffenheim's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, 1899 Hoffenheim 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 66% and 1899 Hoffenheim 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Heidenheim 54% | 1899 Hoffenheim 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.910 / defence 0.950 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.940 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.656. Data: 41 1. FC Heidenheim games / 41 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 37% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 34%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 70% | 1899 Hoffenheim 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 37% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 63% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.910 / def 0.950 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.940 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.656 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.48
1899 Hoffenheim xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 37% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 1 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against 1899 Hoffenheim's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.44
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.02
1.48
1899 Hoffenheim xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
8%
11.92
7%
13.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.48 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 13W 12D 16L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
1899 Hoffenheim's form line: 15W 8D 18L from 41 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.24 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (8W 5D 7L).
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 7W 3D 10L from 20 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.93 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 88%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 13W 12D 16L in their last 41 games (1.24 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.45 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
1899 Hoffenheim have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting 1899 Hoffenheim specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
3
Draws
3
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 2-4 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Heidenheim at 65%, 1899 Hoffenheim at 85%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 85% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 65% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 85% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 85% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Heidenheim's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim and 1899 Hoffenheim finished level at 0-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.54 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.48 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.5 short of their projected output. 1899 Hoffenheim landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.91 / defence 0.95 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 37% | Draw 29% | 1899 Hoffenheim 34%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, 1899 Hoffenheim 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 77%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.24 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.