1. FC Heidenheim 4-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Heidenheim face 1. FC Köln.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1. FC Köln make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time.
Form
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
1. FC Heidenheim's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Köln's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and 1. FC Köln's last 10 away games) — 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, 1. FC Köln in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 0 for 1. FC Köln and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 1–1 1. FC Köln — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 60% versus 1. FC Köln 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 54% | 1. FC Köln 42%). Note also that 1. FC Köln surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while 1. FC Heidenheim recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.31 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.841 / defence 1.038 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.809 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.446. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 33 games and 1. FC Köln's last 67.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 36% | Draw 33% | 1. FC Köln 31%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.77 | Draw 3.06 | 1. FC Köln 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 90% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Köln 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 34 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 36% | Draw 33% | 1. FC Köln 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.31 / 1. FC Köln 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.841 / def 1.038 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.809 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.21
1. FC Köln xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln FAQs
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Heidenheim 4 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 34) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 36% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Köln's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.81x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 33 games and 1. FC Köln's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
36%
2.77
33%
3.06
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.53
1.21
1. FC Köln xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.21 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 67 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 28W 22D 17L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
1. FC Köln's form line: 15W 24D 28L from 67 games, 1.03 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W.
Put side by side, 1. FC Heidenheim are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Köln.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 1.91 PPG from their last 33 home games (18W 9D 6L).
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 5W 15D 13L from their last 33 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.13 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
1. FC Köln
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim (Home) vs 1. FC Köln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
1. FC Köln
Current Season
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 28W 22D 17L in their last 67 games (1.58 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 15W 24D 28L in their last 67 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or 1. FC Köln away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.91 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.91 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln, the earliest from January 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 10 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won 1. FC Heidenheim 4-1 1. FC Köln on 18 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
0
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, 1. FC Köln have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 May 2026: 1. FC Köln 1-3 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 61%, 1. FC Köln 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 39% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; 1. FC Köln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Köln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 61% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent games and 39% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Köln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 67% of 1. FC Köln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Heidenheim run riot with a 4-1 hammering of 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat 1. FC Köln 4-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.31 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.21 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.84 / defence 1.04 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 36% | Draw 33% | 1. FC Köln 31%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 54%, 1. FC Köln 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.03. Form held, and they took the win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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