Union Berlin 2-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Freiburg make the trip to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to face Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Union Berlin at Stadion An der Alten Försterei this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
SC Freiburg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SC Freiburg away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
SC Freiburg arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Union Berlin, 1 for SC Freiburg and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 43% versus SC Freiburg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 48% | SC Freiburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.23 xG and SC Freiburg 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.866 / defence 1.258 | SC Freiburg attack 0.803 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.446. Data: 67 Union Berlin games / 67 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 29% | Draw 31% | SC Freiburg 40%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | SC Freiburg 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Freiburg at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 50% | SC Freiburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 29% | Draw 31% | SC Freiburg 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Union Berlin 1.23 / SC Freiburg 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.866 / def 1.258 | SC Freiburg attack 0.803 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.46
SC Freiburg xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Union Berlin 2 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg part of?
Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 29% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Union Berlin and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
Record (5 meetings): Union Berlin 2W | Draws 2 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Union Berlin's attack at 0.87x the league average against SC Freiburg's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.80x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
29%
3.43
31%
3.20
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.70
1.46
SC Freiburg xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
7%
14.82
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.46 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union Berlin's recent record stands at 26W 14D 27L from 67 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 28W 17D 22L across 67 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.51 for SC Freiburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Union Berlin have managed 17W 8D 8L from 33 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 13W 6D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.42 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
SC Freiburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 26W 14D 27L in their last 67 games (1.37 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 28W 17D 22L in their last 67 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or SC Freiburg away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.79 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 1-4 on 7 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union Berlin
4
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 5, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 0-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and SC Freiburg?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 48%, SC Freiburg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Union Berlin) and 64% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 39%; Union Berlin have failed to score in 27% of games; SC Freiburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 46% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Union Berlin vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Union Berlin's matches and 64% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Union Berlin and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Union Berlin defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat SC Freiburg 2-1 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.23 xG and SC Freiburg 1.46 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.87 / defence 1.26 against SC Freiburg attack 0.80 / defence 0.87, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 29% | Draw 31% | SC Freiburg 40%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 48%, SC Freiburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.37 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.