Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt host FC Augsburg at Deutsche Bank Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Frankfurt stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have posted 6W 2D 2L at Deutsche Bank Park — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Deutsche Bank Park. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Deutsche Bank Park than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Eintracht Frankfurt have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 2, FC Augsburg 1, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Eintracht Frankfurt trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
FC Augsburg trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Frankfurt 66% versus FC Augsburg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 66% | FC Augsburg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.99 xG and FC Augsburg 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.990 / defence 0.971 | FC Augsburg attack 0.853 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.412. Data: 47 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 47 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 56% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 21%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | FC Augsburg 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 40% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 56% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.99 / FC Augsburg 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.990 / def 0.971 | FC Augsburg attack 0.853 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.17
FC Augsburg xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 56% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
Record (8 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 5 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Eintracht Frankfurt's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
56%
1.80
23%
4.37
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.16
1.17
FC Augsburg xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
3%
34.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.17 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Frankfurt come into this having played 47 games, going 23W 12D 12L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.19 PPG from 47 outings (15W 11D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Eintracht Frankfurt's home form reads 13W 5D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.04 points per game from 23 outings (6W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.11 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 23W 12D 12L in their last 47 games (1.72 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 15W 11D 21L in their last 47 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or FC Augsburg away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.91 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
6
Draws
1
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, FC Augsburg have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 61%, FC Augsburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 61% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 52% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 61% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out FC Augsburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat FC Augsburg 1-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.99 xG and FC Augsburg 1.17 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.0 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against FC Augsburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 56% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 21%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 66%, FC Augsburg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.