Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Holstein Kiel make the trip to BORUSSIA-PARK to face Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at BORUSSIA-PARK this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Holstein Kiel (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Borussia Mönchengladbach. A 1.00 PPG lead over Holstein Kiel (1.50 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Holstein Kiel in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Holstein Kiel — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% and Holstein Kiel 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% | Holstein Kiel 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.42 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.093 / defence 0.933 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.868 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.658 / away 1.481. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 13 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 63% | Draw 22% | Holstein Kiel 16%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Holstein Kiel 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.62 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Holstein Kiel 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 63% | Draw 22% | Holstein Kiel 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 65% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.42 / Holstein Kiel 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.093 / def 0.933 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.868 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.658 / away 1.481 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Holstein Kiel xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 63% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Holstein Kiel?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Holstein Kiel in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (1.09) and Holstein Kiel's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (0.87x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 47/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.59
16%
6.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.62
1.20
Holstein Kiel xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
6.39
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
9%
11.25
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
1%
71.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.20 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 16D 19L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.55 PPG from 47 outings (22W 7D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 9W 7D 7L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.78 points per game from 23 outings (12W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.66 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 12W 16D 19L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 22W 7D 18L in their last 47 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.48 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Borussia Mönchengladbach
0
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Holstein Kiel?
From 2 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Holstein Kiel 4-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%, Holstein Kiel 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 61% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 56% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 61% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Mönchengladbach run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Holstein Kiel 4-1 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.42 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.20 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.87 / defence 1.33, drawn from 47/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 63% | Draw 22% | Holstein Kiel 16%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%, Holstein Kiel 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.