Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Mönchengladbach face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach host Bayer Leverkusen at Borussia-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 7 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record at Borussia-Park: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bayer Leverkusen are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 9 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bayer Leverkusen, who boast 6 victories compared to 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 53% versus Bayer Leverkusen 66%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | Bayer Leverkusen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.863 / defence 1.159 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.156 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.624 / away 1.436. Data: 54 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 53 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 52%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.92. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.26 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 30% | Bayer Leverkusen 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.863 / def 1.159 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.156 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.624 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Bayer Leverkusen xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 24% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (9 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 3 | Bayer Leverkusen 6W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (0.86) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
24%
4.20
25%
4.07
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.19
1.92
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.20
24%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
15%
6.85
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
3%
28.76
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.92 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 53 games, going 18W 12D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.96 PPG from 53 outings (30W 14D 9L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.96 points per game from 26 outings (14W 9D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.08 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 12D 23L in their last 53 games (1.25 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 30W 14D 9L in their last 53 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.27 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Bayer Leverkusen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 46%, Bayer Leverkusen 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 65% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 73% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 65% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 21, as Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.16 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 24% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 52%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%, Bayer Leverkusen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.