Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 65% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BayArena plays host to Bayer Leverkusen versus FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 18 April 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 6W 2D 2L at BayArena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at BayArena.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Augsburg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 3, with 0 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–2 with FC Augsburg winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bayer Leverkusen and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 65% versus FC Augsburg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 59% | FC Augsburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.31 xG and FC Augsburg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.296 / defence 0.897 | FC Augsburg attack 0.812 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.449. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Bayer Leverkusen games / 63 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 65% | Draw 19% | FC Augsburg 16%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | FC Augsburg 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bayer Leverkusen 50% | FC Augsburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 65% | Draw 19% | FC Augsburg 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 59% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.31 / FC Augsburg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.296 / def 0.897 | FC Augsburg attack 0.812 / def 1.051 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.05
FC Augsburg xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 65% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg?
Record (9 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 6W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 3W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 1.30x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.81x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
65%
1.53
19%
5.37
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.37
1.05
FC Augsburg xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
10%
10.09
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
2%
63.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.05 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 34W 19D 10L from 63 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-D-D-W-W in the last five.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 27L across 63 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Augsburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 18W 7D 6L from 31 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Augsburg's away record stands at 8W 7D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.13 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
FC Augsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 34W 19D 10L in their last 63 games (1.92 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 20W 16D 27L in their last 63 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or FC Augsburg away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.97 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
0
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 61%, FC Augsburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 58% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 52% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 58% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Augsburg defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 at BayArena, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.31 xG and FC Augsburg 1.05 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.30 / defence 0.90 against FC Augsburg attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 65% | Draw 19% | FC Augsburg 16%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 59%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.