1. FC Köln 4-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host Hamburger SV at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Köln — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieStadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
1. FC Köln carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for 1. FC Köln, 2 for Hamburger SV and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Hamburger SV winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 55% versus Hamburger SV 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 52% | Hamburger SV 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.56 xG and Hamburger SV 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.980 / defence 1.091 | Hamburger SV attack 0.594 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.490. Data: 8 1. FC Köln games / 8 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 51% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 23%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Hamburger SV 4.35. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Köln are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Köln 70% | Hamburger SV 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 51% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.56 / Hamburger SV 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.980 / def 1.091 | Hamburger SV attack 0.594 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.490 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Hamburger SV xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
1. FC Köln 4 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV part of?
1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 51% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 0W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 2W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.98) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.88
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.52
0.96
Hamburger SV xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
21%
4.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
5%
20.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 0.96 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Köln come into this having played 42 games, going 21W 9D 12L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.60 PPG from 42 outings (18W 13D 11L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 1.71 PPG, Hamburger SV on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
1. FC Köln's home form reads 10W 5D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.02 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 21W 9D 12L in their last 42 games (1.71 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 18W 13D 11L in their last 42 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Hamburger SV away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.75 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.35 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when 1. FC Köln won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
1. FC Köln
1
Draws
2
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Hamburger SV 1-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 65%, Hamburger SV 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for 1. FC Köln and 70% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of 1. FC Köln's games and 55% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 70% of Hamburger SV's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Köln run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Hamburger SV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Hamburger SV 4-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.56 xG and Hamburger SV 0.96 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.98 / defence 1.09 against Hamburger SV attack 0.59 / defence 1.07, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 51% | Draw 26% | Hamburger SV 23%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 52%, Hamburger SV 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.71 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.95 average — above their attacking norm. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.