1. FC Köln 3-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host Borussia Mönchengladbach at Cologne Stadium in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 October 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Köln have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 1W 2D 7L at Cologne Stadium — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Borussia Mönchengladbach — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, 1. FC Köln have won 3, Borussia Mönchengladbach 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 58% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 51% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.65 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.750 / defence 1.126 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.280 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.852 / away 1.477. 1. FC Köln's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 1.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach have an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — the away xG of 2.13 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 1. FC Köln games / 41 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 30% | Draw 21% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 49%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 3.33 | Draw 4.76 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.04. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 2.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 50% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cologne Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 30% | Draw 21% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.65 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.13 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.750 / def 1.126 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.280 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.852 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
2.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Cologne Stadium.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1. FC Köln 3 - 1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Cologne Stadium.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 30% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 49% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (6 meetings): 1. FC Köln 3W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.75) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 2.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
30%
3.36
21%
4.68
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.77
2.13
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.49
Clean Sheet
12%
8.41
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
4%
28.25
9%
10.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 2.13 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 13D 18L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 12W 13D 16L from 41 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Köln on 1.05 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 9D 9L from 20 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's season.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.59 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 10W 13D 18L in their last 41 games (1.05 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 12W 13D 16L in their last 41 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.15 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when 1. FC Köln won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Borussia Mönchengladbach specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 4, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when 1. FC Köln 3-3 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Köln at 55%, Borussia Mönchengladbach at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for 1. FC Köln and 75% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of 1. FC Köln's games and 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 75% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Köln cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 3-1 at Cologne Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.65 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.13 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Köln beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Mönchengladbach landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.75 / defence 1.13 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.28 / defence 1.18, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 30% | Draw 21% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 49%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 51%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.05 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.