SV Elversberg 1-2 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hansa Rostock at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 2 as SV Elversberg welcome Hansa Rostock to Stadion Ludwigspark. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Elversberg have gone 0W 1D 0L from 1 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. SV Elversberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hansa Rostock's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hansa Rostock are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.23 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.868 / defence 1.150 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.848 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.349. Data: 1 SV Elversberg games / 35 Hansa Rostock games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 34% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 39%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Hansa Rostock 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Ludwigspark • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 34% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG SV Elversberg 1.23 / Hansa Rostock 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.868 / def 1.150 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.848 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Hansa Rostock xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Stadion Ludwigspark.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock?
SV Elversberg 1 - 2 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ludwigspark.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 34% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
34%
2.90
27%
3.74
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.54
1.32
Hansa Rostock xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
9%
10.81
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.32 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SV Elversberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hansa Rostock by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Elversberg heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
SV Elversberg are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. SV Elversberg's scoring rate against Hansa Rostock's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Hansa Rostock in 0%.
Defensively: Hansa Rostock in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Early Season
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have SV Elversberg or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 0, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Hansa Rostock 2-1 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 0% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Elversberg vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of SV Elversberg's recent games and 0% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Elversberg and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hansa Rostock edge out SV Elversberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat SV Elversberg 1-2 at Stadion Ludwigspark, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.23 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.32 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.85 / defence 0.92, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 34% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 39%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 100%, Hansa Rostock 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hansa Rostock arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Elversberg managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Hansa Rostock shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.