FC St. Pauli 0-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion plays host to FC St. Pauli versus Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 5 August 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC St. Pauli have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Millerntor-Stadion, FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion.
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for FC St. Pauli, 1.90 for Fortuna Düsseldorf — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FC St. Pauli 1W, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 51% versus Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 54% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.30 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.914 / defence 0.835 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.048 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.349. Data: 35 FC St. Pauli games / 35 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 39% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 34%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 40% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 39% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.30 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.914 / def 0.835 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.048 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 39% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (4 meetings): FC St. Pauli 1W | Draws 2 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (0.91) and Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack (1.05x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
39%
2.53
27%
3.70
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.48
1.18
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.18 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 35 games, going 17W 10D 8L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.74 PPG from 35 outings (18W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.74 for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 9W 7D 1L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.24 points per game from 17 outings (6W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fortuna Düsseldorf's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.74 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 17W 10D 8L in their last 35 games (1.74 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.00 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.24 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Fortuna Düsseldorf — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 6 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 47%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC St. Pauli) and 53% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 47% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 53% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC St. Pauli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as FC St. Pauli and Fortuna Düsseldorf drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.30 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.18 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.91 / defence 0.83 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 39% | Draw 27% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 34%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 54%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.74 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.