SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SV Darmstadt 98 (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SV Darmstadt 98 face SC Paderborn 07.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 26 January 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this season.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. SV Darmstadt 98's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of SC Paderborn 07's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SV Darmstadt 98 register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SC Paderborn 07 in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 5 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2024, ended 1–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both SV Darmstadt 98 and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 81% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 60% and SC Paderborn 07 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Darmstadt 98 65% | SC Paderborn 07 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.71 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.179 / defence 0.911 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.000 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.511. Data: 18 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 52 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 30%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | SC Paderborn 07 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 70% | SC Paderborn 07 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.71 / SC Paderborn 07 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.179 / def 0.911 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.000 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.38
SC Paderborn 07 xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 44% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (5 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 4W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.18x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.00x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.76
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.09
1.38
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
5%
18.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.38 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 52 games, going 9W 15D 28L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-D. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.54 PPG from 52 outings (22W 14D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 4W 7D 15L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.58 points per game from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.62 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 73%.
Last 52 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 9W 15D 28L in their last 52 games (0.81 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 22W 14D 16L in their last 52 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 0.73 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 3-0 on 15 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for SV Darmstadt 98, 81% for SC Paderborn 07 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 77% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 81% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 77% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.71 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.38 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.18 / defence 0.91 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 44% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 30%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 65%, SC Paderborn 07 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.81. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.65 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.