SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome Hamburger SV to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Hamburger SV — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Hamburger SV have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Hamburger SV's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 70% of Hamburger SV's (from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 2 for Hamburger SV and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–2 Hamburger SV — a Hamburger SV win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% and Hamburger SV 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58% | Hamburger SV 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SpVgg Greuther Fürth surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Hamburger SV have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.55 xG and Hamburger SV 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.988 / defence 1.084 | Hamburger SV attack 1.038 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.375. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 60 games and Hamburger SV's last 60.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 38%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.63 | Draw 4.19 | Hamburger SV 2.63. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.55) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% and Hamburger SV 38%, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.55 / Hamburger SV 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.988 / def 1.084 | Hamburger SV attack 1.038 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Hamburger SV xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 38% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.99) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 60 games and Hamburger SV's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
38%
2.63
24%
4.19
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.09
1.55
Hamburger SV xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.55 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 21W 16D 23L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Hamburger SV's form line: 32W 11D 17L from 60 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 12W 8D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.98 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 60%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs Hamburger SV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 21W 16D 23L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 32W 11D 17L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hamburger SV away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.90 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.47 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 18 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Dec 2024, when Hamburger SV won Hamburger SV 5-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 May 2025: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%, Hamburger SV 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 60% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 60% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 60% of Hamburger SV's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 80% of Hamburger SV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 27, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.55 xG and Hamburger SV 1.55 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Hamburger SV attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 38%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%, Hamburger SV 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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