1. FC Magdeburg 0-3 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 52%, yet in-form Hannover 96 provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Hannover 96 travel to MDCC-Arena to take on 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 27). The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
1. FC Magdeburg — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
1. FC Magdeburg at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Hannover 96 stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hannover 96 away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Hannover 96 — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 60% of Hannover 96's (from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and Hannover 96's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, Hannover 96 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2023, ended 1. FC Magdeburg 1–2 Hannover 96 — a Hannover 96 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 58% and Hannover 96 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 58% | Hannover 96 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: 1. FC Magdeburg surrender their half-time lead 47% of the time, while Hannover 96 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 47% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Hannover 96 surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while 1. FC Magdeburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.70 xG and Hannover 96 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.951 / defence 0.816 | Hannover 96 attack 0.939 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.375. Data: built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 60 games and Hannover 96's last 60.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 52% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.91 | Draw 4.15 | Hannover 96 4.25. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hannover 96 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and Hannover 96's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Magdeburg 60% (last 10 home games) | Hannover 96 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 27 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 52% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.70 / Hannover 96 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.951 / def 0.816 | Hannover 96 attack 0.939 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Hannover 96 xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 FAQs
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 31 March 2024 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96?
1. FC Magdeburg 0 - 3 Hannover 96.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 27) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 52% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Hannover 96's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 60 games and Hannover 96's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.15
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
2.75
1.05
Hannover 96 xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
4%
23.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.05 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 20W 14D 26L from 60 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Hannover 96, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 20L across 60 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.23 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 12W 7D 11L from their last 30 home games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hannover 96's away record stands at 7W 10D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.62 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 in 65%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg (Home) vs Hannover 96 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 20W 14D 26L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 22W 18D 20L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Hannover 96 away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 1.43 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Aug 2022, when Hannover 96 won 1. FC Magdeburg 0-4 Hannover 96.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
1. FC Magdeburg
1
Draws
6
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, Hannover 96 have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: 1. FC Magdeburg 3-0 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 60%, Hannover 96 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 57% (Hannover 96). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs Hannover 96 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 67% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 57% of Hannover 96's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Hannover 96 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 77% of Hannover 96's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hannover 96 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of 1. FC Magdeburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat 1. FC Magdeburg 0-3 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.70 xG and Hannover 96 1.05 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Hannover 96 outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 0.95 / defence 0.82 against Hannover 96 attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 52% | Draw 24% | Hannover 96 24%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Hannover 96 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 58%, Hannover 96 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hannover 96's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.23 PPG, Hannover 96 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hannover 96 win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More 2. Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 27
All 2. Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →