SC Paderborn 07 2-3 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face Hertha BSC.

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Analysis

Hertha BSC make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Friday 5 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form

SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SC Paderborn 07 at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Hertha BSC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.30 for Hertha BSC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 1 for Hertha BSC and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 1–3 Hertha BSC — a Hertha BSC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 45%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 62% and Hertha BSC 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 74% | Hertha BSC 66%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.58 xG and Hertha BSC 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.883 / defence 1.149 | Hertha BSC attack 0.877 / defence 1.151. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.367. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 61 games and Hertha BSC's last 27.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 42% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 33%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.37 | Draw 4.10 | Hertha BSC 3.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and Hertha BSC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 50% (last 10 home games) | Hertha BSC 80% (last 10 away games).

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