1. FC Nürnberg 0-4 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Holstein Kiel make the trip to Max-Morlock-Stadion to face 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Max-Morlock-Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Holstein Kiel (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Holstein Kiel have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for Holstein Kiel and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Holstein Kiel — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 48% versus Holstein Kiel 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 52% | Holstein Kiel 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.02 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.867 / defence 1.093 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.167 / defence 0.747. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.382. Holstein Kiel's defence strength of 0.747 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 61 1. FC Nürnberg games / 61 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 22% | Draw 23% | Holstein Kiel 55%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 4.55 | Draw 4.35 | Holstein Kiel 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Holstein Kiel (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | Holstein Kiel 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 22% | Draw 23% | Holstein Kiel 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.02 / Holstein Kiel 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.867 / def 1.093 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.167 / def 0.747 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Holstein Kiel xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?
1. FC Nürnberg 0 - 4 Holstein Kiel.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 22% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel?
Record (5 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 2W | Draws 0 | Holstein Kiel 3W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
1. FC Nürnberg's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Holstein Kiel's attack (1.17x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
22%
4.60
23%
4.27
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.78
1.76
Holstein Kiel xG
4.60
22%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
4%
26.80
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.76 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 16D 25L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.61 PPG from 61 outings (28W 14D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.61 for Holstein Kiel. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 12W 8D 10L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 1.70 points per game from 30 outings (14W 9D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.79 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel in 67%.
Last 61 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 20W 16D 25L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 28W 14D 19L in their last 61 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.47 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Holstein Kiel won 0-4 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Holstein Kiel — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
4
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, Holstein Kiel have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Holstein Kiel 2-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 43%, Holstein Kiel 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 60% (Holstein Kiel).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Holstein Kiel in 33%; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play Holstein Kiel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 60% of Holstein Kiel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 60% of Holstein Kiel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Holstein Kiel run riot with a 0-4 hammering of 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat 1. FC Nürnberg 0-4 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.02 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.76 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Holstein Kiel outscored their 1.76 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.09 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.17 / defence 0.75, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 22% | Draw 23% | Holstein Kiel 55%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 52%, Holstein Kiel 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.25 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.