Karlsruher SC 2-2 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Karlsruher SC face SV Wehen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BBBank Wildpark plays host to Karlsruher SC versus SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 20). Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time.
Form
Karlsruher SC (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Karlsruher SC's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Wehen's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SV Wehen have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Karlsruher SC against 1.60 for SV Wehen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Karlsruher SC, 1 for SV Wehen and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Karlsruher SC 0–1 SV Wehen — a SV Wehen win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Karlsruher SC — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
SV Wehen — key trading statistics (last 21 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karlsruher SC 71% and SV Wehen 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karlsruher SC 67% | SV Wehen 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Karlsruher SC surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while SV Wehen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that SV Wehen surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Karlsruher SC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.68 xG and SV Wehen 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 1.063 / defence 1.107 | SV Wehen attack 0.797 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.631 / away 1.373. SV Wehen's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Data: built from Karlsruher SC's last 53 games and SV Wehen's last 19.
Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 48% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 28%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 2.06 | Draw 4.16 | SV Wehen 3.64. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Karlsruher SC's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karlsruher SC 60% (last 10 home games) | SV Wehen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: BBBank Wildpark • Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 48% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Karlsruher SC 1.68 / SV Wehen 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Karlsruher SC attack 1.063 / def 1.107 | SV Wehen attack 0.797 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.631 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Karlsruher SC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
SV Wehen xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen FAQs
What time does Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen kick off?
Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Friday 2 February 2024 at BBBank Wildpark.
What was the final score in Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen?
Karlsruher SC 2 - 2 SV Wehen.
Where is Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at BBBank Wildpark.
What competition is Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen part of?
Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives Karlsruher SC a 48% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Karlsruher SC's attack rating (1.06) and SV Wehen's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.80x) against Karlsruher SC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Karlsruher SC's last 53 games and SV Wehen's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
48%
2.06
24%
4.16
28%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Karlsruher SC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.21
SV Wehen xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
3.64
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
14%
6.93
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.21 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Karlsruher SC come into this having played 21 games, going 8W 7D 6L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, SV Wehen sit at 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Karlsruher SC against 1.48 for SV Wehen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Karlsruher SC's home form reads 6W 3D 2L across their last 11 home games, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Karlsruher SC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SV Wehen have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 11 away games (4W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.33 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karlsruher SC
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
Karlsruher SC (Home) vs SV Wehen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karlsruher SC
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen Form FAQs
What form are Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
Karlsruher SC have gone 8W 7D 6L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 9W 4D 8L in their last 21 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karlsruher SC at home or SV Wehen away?
Karlsruher SC's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karlsruher SC at home: 1.91 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen, the earliest from August 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Karlsruher SC
1
Draws
1
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Karlsruher SC have won 0, SV Wehen have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2024: Karlsruher SC 2-2 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen?
SV Wehen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karlsruher SC 54%, SV Wehen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Karlsruher SC) and 46% (SV Wehen).
On the defensive side: SV Wehen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karlsruher SC home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SV Wehen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Karlsruher SC's recent matches and 54% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Karlsruher SC's recent games and 46% of SV Wehen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Karlsruher SC's recent matches and 64% of SV Wehen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 20, as Karlsruher SC and SV Wehen drew 2-2 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.68 xG and SV Wehen 1.21 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.06 / defence 1.11 against SV Wehen attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 53/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 48% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 28%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 67%, SV Wehen 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
SV Wehen's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.48 PPG, SV Wehen 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SV Wehen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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