Hertha BSC 1-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hertha BSC face Hamburger SV.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV meet at Olympiastadion Berlin in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 20). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Current Form
Hertha BSC's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Hertha BSC's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hamburger SV (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hamburger SV away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Hertha BSC, 1.70 for Hamburger SV — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) — Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hamburger SV in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Hamburger SV edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Hertha BSC 0–3 Hamburger SV — a Hamburger SV win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Hamburger SV — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 66% and Hamburger SV 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 64% | Hamburger SV 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hertha BSC surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Hamburger SV have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.71 xG and Hamburger SV 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 1.127 / defence 0.954 | Hamburger SV attack 1.137 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.637 / away 1.382. Data: built from Hertha BSC's last 19 games and Hamburger SV's last 53.
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 43% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 34%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.34 | Draw 4.30 | Hamburger SV 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.71 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hertha BSC's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hertha BSC 60% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 43% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Hertha BSC 1.71 / Hamburger SV 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 1.127 / def 0.954 | Hamburger SV attack 1.137 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.637 / away 1.382 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Hamburger SV xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV FAQs
What time does Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Hertha BSC 1 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV part of?
Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 43% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.14x) against Hertha BSC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from Hertha BSC's last 19 games and Hamburger SV's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
43%
2.34
23%
4.30
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.21
1.50
Hamburger SV xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
6%
16.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.50 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hertha BSC come into this having played 53 games, going 14W 13D 26L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.83 PPG from 53 outings (29W 10D 14L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Hertha BSC's home form reads 9W 9D 8L across their last 26 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.42 points per game from their last 26 away games (10W 7D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hamburger SV's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.02 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hertha BSC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 60%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
Hertha BSC (Home) vs Hamburger SV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hertha BSC
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV Form FAQs
What form are Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 14W 13D 26L in their last 53 games (1.04 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 29W 10D 14L in their last 53 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.38 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Hertha BSC or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hertha BSC have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won Hamburger SV 3-0 Hertha BSC on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
1
Draws
4
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hertha BSC have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Hertha BSC 2-3 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 62%, Hamburger SV 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Hertha BSC) and 62% (Hamburger SV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hertha BSC vs Hamburger SV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hertha BSC's games and 62% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Hertha BSC's matches and 62% of Hamburger SV's.
Do Hertha BSC and Hamburger SV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Hertha BSC's recent matches and 81% of Hamburger SV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hamburger SV defy the odds to beat Hertha BSC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Hertha BSC 1-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.71 xG and Hamburger SV 1.50 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 1.13 / defence 0.95 against Hamburger SV attack 1.14 / defence 0.93, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 43% | Draw 23% | Hamburger SV 34%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Hamburger SV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 64%, Hamburger SV 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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