SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees SV Elversberg travel to Jahnstadion Regensburg to take on SSV Jahn Regensburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 November 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at Jahnstadion Regensburg this term (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Elversberg have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. SV Elversberg's 1.60 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of SSV Jahn Regensburg's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
SV Elversberg in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% versus SV Elversberg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SSV Jahn Regensburg 67% | SV Elversberg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.69 xG and SV Elversberg 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.466 / defence 1.268 | SV Elversberg attack 0.948 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.555. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.466 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 44 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 64%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 8.33 | Draw 4.17 | SV Elversberg 1.56. The model has a clear lean to SV Elversberg (64%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 17% | SV Elversberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 43% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.69 / SV Elversberg 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.466 / def 1.268 | SV Elversberg attack 0.948 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.87
SV Elversberg xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 November 2024 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 - 0 SV Elversberg.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 12% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 64% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Elversberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Elversberg in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 0.47x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.2%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
12%
8.65
24%
4.11
64%
1.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.6%
Away win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.56
1.87
SV Elversberg xG
8.65
12%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.56
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
15%
6.48
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
2%
56.07
32%
3.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 14.5 | 13.6 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.87 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 2D 8L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.58 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 games (0.67 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 4W 4D 4L in their last 12 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 0.83 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
1
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Elversberg?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when SV Elversberg 6-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — SSV Jahn Regensburg 17% BTTS, SV Elversberg 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 50% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SV Elversberg in 33%; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 67% of games; SV Elversberg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play SV Elversberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 50% of SV Elversberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 50% of SV Elversberg's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SSV Jahn Regensburg defy the odds to beat SV Elversberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SV Elversberg 1-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.69 xG and SV Elversberg 1.87 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SV Elversberg landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.47 / defence 1.27 against SV Elversberg attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 10/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 64%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a SSV Jahn Regensburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 67%, SV Elversberg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.