SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs FC Ingolstadt 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees FC Ingolstadt 04 travel to Jahnstadion Regensburg to take on SSV Jahn Regensburg. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 April 2022, 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

SSV Jahn Regensburg's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Jahnstadion Regensburg this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

FC Ingolstadt 04 — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (SSV Jahn Regensburg) versus 0.80 (FC Ingolstadt 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SSV Jahn Regensburg, 0 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 3–0 with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 57% versus FC Ingolstadt 04 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 61% | FC Ingolstadt 04 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.46 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.971 / defence 1.146 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.733 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.416. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 28 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 41% | Draw 30% | FC Ingolstadt 04 29%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | FC Ingolstadt 04 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 70% | FC Ingolstadt 04 40% BTTS from recent games.

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