SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg host 1. FC Köln at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jahnstadion Regensburg, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 2D 4L this season (8 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at Jahnstadion Regensburg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Köln stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. 1. FC Köln's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of SSV Jahn Regensburg's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 69% of games.
1. FC Köln in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 19% versus 1. FC Köln 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% | 1. FC Köln 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.86 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.518 / defence 1.061 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.871 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.544. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.518 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 14 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 48%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 5.00 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Köln 2.08. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 12% | 1. FC Köln 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.86 / 1. FC Köln 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.518 / def 1.061 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.871 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.544 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.43
1. FC Köln xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 0 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 20% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 48% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Köln?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Köln in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 0.52x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
20%
4.91
32%
3.16
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.29
1.43
1. FC Köln xG
4.91
20%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
5%
20.46
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.5 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.43 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 3D 10L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.56 PPG from 16 outings (7W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Köln carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 2W 1D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.94 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 19% of their recent games; 1. FC Köln in 69%.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 3W 3D 10L in their last 16 games (0.75 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 7W 4D 5L in their last 16 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or 1. FC Köln away?
1. FC Köln's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.00 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.57 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or 1. FC Köln been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, 1. FC Köln in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
Draws
1
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Köln?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, 1. FC Köln have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when 1. FC Köln 1-1 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 0%, 1. FC Köln 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 71% (1. FC Köln). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 71% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 71% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play 1. FC Köln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 71% of 1. FC Köln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 71% of 1. FC Köln's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Köln edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-1 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.86 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.43 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SSV Jahn Regensburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.52 / defence 1.06 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Köln 48%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 50%, 1. FC Köln 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 69% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.