Hansa Rostock 2-1 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 38%, yet in-form SV Elversberg provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock host SV Elversberg at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock at Ostseestadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Hansa Rostock are significantly better at Ostseestadion than their overall form suggests.
SV Elversberg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg away from home this season: 4W 2D 3L from 9 away games — 1.56 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. SV Elversberg's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Hansa Rostock's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hansa Rostock register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SV Elversberg in 78% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Hansa Rostock, 0 for SV Elversberg and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 2–1 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hansa Rostock in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 50% versus SV Elversberg 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 61% | SV Elversberg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.51 xG and SV Elversberg 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.773 / defence 1.114 | SV Elversberg attack 0.973 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.388. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.773 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SV Elversberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Hansa Rostock games / 18 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 38% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 38%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | SV Elversberg 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 60% | SV Elversberg 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 38% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.51 / SV Elversberg 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.773 / def 1.114 | SV Elversberg attack 0.973 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.50
SV Elversberg xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg?
Hansa Rostock 2 - 1 SV Elversberg.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg part of?
Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 38% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hansa Rostock and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Elversberg?
Record (1 meetings): Hansa Rostock 1W | Draws 0 | SV Elversberg 0W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Elversberg in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against SV Elversberg's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
38%
2.64
24%
4.13
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
3.01
1.50
SV Elversberg xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
8%
11.87
8%
11.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.50 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 5W 2D 11L from 18 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 7L across 18 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Elversberg by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 3W 1D 5L from 9 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 4W 2D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hansa Rostock are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.56 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg in 67%.
Last 18 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 2D 11L in their last 18 games (0.94 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.11 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
0
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and SV Elversberg?
From 2 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 2, SV Elversberg have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Hansa Rostock 2-1 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and SV Elversberg?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hansa Rostock at 56%, SV Elversberg at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Hansa Rostock and 67% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Hansa Rostock's games and 78% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 67% of SV Elversberg's.
Do Hansa Rostock and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hansa Rostock edge out SV Elversberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat SV Elversberg 2-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.51 xG and SV Elversberg 1.50 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.77 / defence 1.11 against SV Elversberg attack 0.97 / defence 1.21, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 38% | Draw 24% | SV Elversberg 38%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 61%, SV Elversberg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Hansa Rostock winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.