Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fortuna Düsseldorf face FC St. Pauli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to Düsseldorf Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC St. Pauli's record over their last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC St. Pauli's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 2.00 for FC St. Pauli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 70% of FC St. Pauli's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Aug 2023, ended Fortuna Düsseldorf 0–0 FC St. Pauli — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% versus FC St. Pauli 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% | FC St. Pauli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.56 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.074 / defence 1.207 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.137 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.355. Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating of 1.207 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC St. Pauli's projected output up. Data: built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 52 games and FC St. Pauli's last 52.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 45%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.09 | Draw 4.39 | FC St. Pauli 2.23. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 10 home games and FC St. Pauli's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fortuna Düsseldorf 80% (last 10 home games) | FC St. Pauli 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 19 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.56 / FC St. Pauli 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.074 / def 1.207 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.137 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.86
FC St. Pauli xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli FAQs
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 2 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 19) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 32% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.07x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (1.14x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from Fortuna Düsseldorf's last 52 games and FC St. Pauli's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
32%
3.09
23%
4.39
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.42
1.86
FC St. Pauli xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
16%
6.42
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
5%
19.80
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.86 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 26W 11D 15L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 25W 19D 8L from 52 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 1.81 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.92 PPG from their last 25 home games (14W 6D 5L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 11W 7D 7L from their last 25 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.69 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf (Home) vs FC St. Pauli (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli Form FAQs
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 26W 11D 15L in their last 52 games (1.71 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 25W 19D 8L in their last 52 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.92 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 68%, FC St. Pauli 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 60% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 60% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 60% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 80% of FC St. Pauli's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.56 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.86 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 45%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%, FC St. Pauli 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.71 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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