Hansa Rostock 1-1 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hansa Rostock at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock host FC Ingolstadt 04 at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hansa Rostock — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hansa Rostock have posted 2W 1D 4L at Ostseestadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 0D 7L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.38 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game.
Hansa Rostock carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Hansa Rostock trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
FC Ingolstadt 04 trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 60% versus FC Ingolstadt 04 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 60% | FC Ingolstadt 04 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.61 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.824 / defence 1.316 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.571 / defence 1.576. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.334. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.576 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Hansa Rostock games / 15 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 48% | Draw 32% | FC Ingolstadt 04 20%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | FC Ingolstadt 04 5.00. Hansa Rostock hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hansa Rostock are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 86% | FC Ingolstadt 04 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 48% | Draw 32% | FC Ingolstadt 04 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.61 / FC Ingolstadt 04 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.824 / def 1.316 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.571 / def 1.576 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.00
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 1 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 48% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Hansa Rostock and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC Ingolstadt 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hansa Rostock's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against FC Ingolstadt 04's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, FC Ingolstadt 04's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
48%
2.08
32%
3.12
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.61
1.00
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
4%
25.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.00 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 15 games, going 5W 3D 7L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Ingolstadt 04 sit at 0.40 PPG from 15 outings (1W 3D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of FC Ingolstadt 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hansa Rostock's home form reads 2W 1D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Ingolstadt 04 have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (1W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hansa Rostock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FC Ingolstadt 04 are on 0.60 scored and 2.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hansa Rostock have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC Ingolstadt 04 in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 3D 7L in their last 15 games (1.20 PPG), while FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 3D 11L in their last 15 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or FC Ingolstadt 04 away?
Hansa Rostock's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Ingolstadt 04 away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Hansa Rostock
2
Draws
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 0, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 0-0 Hansa Rostock.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 86%, FC Ingolstadt 04 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Hansa Rostock and 71% for FC Ingolstadt 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play FC Ingolstadt 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Hansa Rostock's games and 43% of FC Ingolstadt 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs FC Ingolstadt 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 71% of FC Ingolstadt 04's.
Do Hansa Rostock and FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hansa Rostock and FC Ingolstadt 04 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock and FC Ingolstadt 04 finished level at 1-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.61 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.00 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.82 / defence 1.32 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.57 / defence 1.58, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 48% | Draw 32% | FC Ingolstadt 04 20%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 60%, FC Ingolstadt 04 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hansa Rostock arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.