Hamburger SV 3-0 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hamburger SV face SV Wehen.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hamburger SV and SV Wehen meet at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 26). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 March 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Hamburger SV have gone 6W 0D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
SV Wehen have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SV Wehen away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.00 for SV Wehen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Hamburger SV 1–1 SV Wehen — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Hamburger SV — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
SV Wehen — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 59% versus SV Wehen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 63% | SV Wehen 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hamburger SV surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while SV Wehen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that SV Wehen surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Hamburger SV recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.50 xG and SV Wehen 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.096 / defence 1.181 | SV Wehen attack 0.903 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.397. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 59 games and SV Wehen's last 25.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 38% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 38%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.64 | Draw 4.10 | SV Wehen 2.65. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 38% to win, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.50 / 1.49) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Hamburger SV 38% and SV Wehen 38%, with the draw at 24%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 50% (last 10 home games) | SV Wehen 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 26 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 38% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Hamburger SV 1.50 / SV Wehen 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.096 / def 1.181 | SV Wehen attack 0.903 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Hamburger SV and SV Wehen level at 38% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.49
SV Wehen xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen?
Hamburger SV 3 - 0 SV Wehen.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen part of?
Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 26) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 38% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hamburger SV and SV Wehen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.10x the league average against SV Wehen's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.90x) against Hamburger SV's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 59 games and SV Wehen's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
38%
2.64
24%
4.10
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.99
1.49
SV Wehen xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
9%
11.70
8%
11.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.49 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hamburger SV come into this having played 27 games, going 12W 5D 10L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, SV Wehen sit at 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.37 for SV Wehen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hamburger SV's home form reads 8W 0D 5L across their last 13 home games, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Wehen have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 13 away games (4W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.33 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
Hamburger SV (Home) vs SV Wehen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 12W 5D 10L in their last 27 games (1.52 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 10W 7D 10L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SV Wehen away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.85 PPG; SV Wehen away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or SV Wehen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, SV Wehen in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 17 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SV Wehen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 1, SV Wehen have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SV Wehen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2024: Hamburger SV 3-0 SV Wehen.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SV Wehen?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 54%, SV Wehen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Hamburger SV) and 46% (SV Wehen).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; SV Wehen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs SV Wehen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and SV Wehen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 46% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hamburger SV and SV Wehen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 46% of SV Wehen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and SV Wehen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 62% of SV Wehen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SV Wehen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SV Wehen 3-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.50 xG and SV Wehen 1.49 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SV Wehen landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.10 / defence 1.18 against SV Wehen attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 38% | Draw 24% | SV Wehen 38%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 63%, SV Wehen 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
SV Wehen's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.52 PPG, SV Wehen 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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