FC Schalke 04 0-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Holstein Kiel travel to Veltins Arena to take on FC Schalke 04. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. FC Schalke 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 5W 1D 4L at Veltins Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Schalke 04 are significantly better at Veltins Arena than their overall form suggests.
Holstein Kiel — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Holstein Kiel's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Schalke 04 at 1.00 PPG versus Holstein Kiel's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FC Schalke 04, 2 for Holstein Kiel and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Holstein Kiel winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Schalke 04 63% and Holstein Kiel 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Schalke 04 63% | Holstein Kiel 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Schalke 04 1.54 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.083 / defence 1.092 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.938 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.209. Data: 38 FC Schalke 04 games / 4 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 44% | Draw 26% | Holstein Kiel 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Schalke 04 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Holstein Kiel 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Schalke 04 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: FC Schalke 04 80% | Holstein Kiel 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Veltins Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Schalke 04 44% | Draw 26% | Holstein Kiel 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Schalke 04 1.54 / Holstein Kiel 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: FC Schalke 04 attack 1.083 / def 1.092 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.938 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.423 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
FC Schalke 04 xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Holstein Kiel xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Veltins Arena.
What was the final score in FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel?
FC Schalke 04 0 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Veltins Arena.
What competition is FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel part of?
FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives FC Schalke 04 a 44% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Schalke 04 and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Holstein Kiel?
Record (4 meetings): FC Schalke 04 1W | Draws 1 | Holstein Kiel 2W.
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Holstein Kiel in?
FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Schalke 04's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus FC Schalke 04's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.92
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
FC Schalke 04 xG
Total xG
2.78
1.24
Holstein Kiel xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
6%
15.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC Schalke 04 and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for FC Schalke 04 and 1.24 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Schalke 04's recent record stands at 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, have gone 7W 7D 24L across 38 games — 0.74 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Schalke 04 by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Holstein Kiel heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Schalke 04 have managed 8W 3D 8L from 19 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Holstein Kiel's away record stands at 3W 5D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Schalke 04 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Schalke 04 are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.39 scored and 2.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 71%.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Schalke 04 and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
FC Schalke 04 have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 7W 7D 24L in their last 38 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Schalke 04 at home or Holstein Kiel away?
FC Schalke 04's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Schalke 04 at home: 1.42 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 0.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Schalke 04 and Holstein Kiel runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when FC Schalke 04 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Schalke 04's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC Schalke 04
1
Draws
3
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Schalke 04 and Holstein Kiel?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, Holstein Kiel have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Schalke 04 and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between FC Schalke 04 and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Schalke 04 at 79%, Holstein Kiel at 84%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for FC Schalke 04 and 79% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Schalke 04 home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Schalke 04 play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of FC Schalke 04's games and 84% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Schalke 04 vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of FC Schalke 04's matches and 79% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do FC Schalke 04 and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
FC Schalke 04 have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Holstein Kiel defy the odds to beat FC Schalke 04 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat FC Schalke 04 0-1 at Veltins Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Schalke 04 1.54 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.24 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Schalke 04 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Schalke 04 attack 1.08 / defence 1.09 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Schalke 04 44% | Draw 26% | Holstein Kiel 30%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Holstein Kiel win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Schalke 04 63%, Holstein Kiel 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Schalke 04 arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Holstein Kiel winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Schalke 04 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.