Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Arminia Bielefeld at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 April 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Arminia Bielefeld (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Arminia Bielefeld have posted 5W 5D 0L at — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Arminia Bielefeld are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.20 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Arminia Bielefeld register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to SpVgg Greuther Fürth, who have claimed 3 wins from 6 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
It is worth noting that SpVgg Greuther Fürth have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Arminia Bielefeld 66% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 59% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 2.44 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.211 / defence 1.049 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.982 / defence 1.222. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.167. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.222 — this is suppressing Arminia Bielefeld's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Arminia Bielefeld games / 44 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 64% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 17%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Arminia Bielefeld (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.64. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.64 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.44 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arminia Bielefeld are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.64 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 90% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 64% | Draw 19% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 64% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 2.44 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.211 / def 1.049 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.982 / def 1.222 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Arminia Bielefeld (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.20
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
64%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 April 2027.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 64% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Arminia Bielefeld the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (6 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 3 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arminia Bielefeld's attack at 1.21x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 2.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.98x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arminia Bielefeld Win
64%
1.56
19%
5.34
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.64
1.20
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.34
19%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
9%
11.42
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
1%
66.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.20 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 11D 19L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.11 PPG from 44 outings (13W 10D 21L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Arminia Bielefeld against 1.11 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 10W 7D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Arminia Bielefeld are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (5W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arminia Bielefeld come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.34 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Arminia Bielefeld have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 14W 11D 19L in their last 44 games (1.20 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Arminia Bielefeld's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.68 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
3
Draws
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Arminia Bielefeld, 68% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Arminia Bielefeld and 68% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Arminia Bielefeld's matches and 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.