1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Energie Cottbus travel to Avnet-Arena to take on 1. FC Magdeburg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Magdeburg stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 6W 1D 3L at Avnet-Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Avnet-Arena.
Energie Cottbus — All Games: 2W 3D 3L from 8 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.12 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Energie Cottbus have posted 1W 1D 2L from 4 away outings — 1.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.60 PPG, Energie Cottbus 1.12 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
1. FC Magdeburg trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Energie Cottbus trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Magdeburg 38% versus Energie Cottbus 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (1. FC Magdeburg 62% | Energie Cottbus 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 2.56 xG and Energie Cottbus 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.212 / defence 1.018 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.078 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.295. Energie Cottbus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 1. FC Magdeburg games / 8 Energie Cottbus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 62% | Draw 18% | Energie Cottbus 20%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.61 | Draw 5.56 | Energie Cottbus 5.00. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Magdeburg (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.56 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.98 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Magdeburg 40% | Energie Cottbus 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Avnet-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 62% | Draw 18% | Energie Cottbus 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 70% | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 2.56 / Energie Cottbus 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.212 / def 1.018 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.078 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Energie Cottbus xG
70%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Avnet-Arena.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus being played?
The match is being played at Avnet-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 62% chance of winning, Energie Cottbus a 20% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus in?
1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Energie Cottbus (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.12 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates 1. FC Magdeburg's attack at 1.21x the league average against Energie Cottbus's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Energie Cottbus's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
62%
1.61
18%
5.55
20%
5.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.4%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.98
1.42
Energie Cottbus xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.55
18%
Draw
5.05
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
8%
12.97
Win to Nil
15%
6.65
2%
65.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 7.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.42 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Magdeburg come into this having played 8 games, going 4W 1D 3L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Energie Cottbus sit at 1.12 PPG from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Energie Cottbus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Magdeburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Energie Cottbus — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
1. FC Magdeburg's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — 1. FC Magdeburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Energie Cottbus have taken 1.00 points per game from 4 outings (1W 1D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Magdeburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Energie Cottbus are on 2.00 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Energie Cottbus in 75%.
Defensively: 1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Energie Cottbus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 4W 1D 3L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Energie Cottbus have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or Energie Cottbus away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 2.25 PPG; Energie Cottbus away: 1.00 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or Energie Cottbus been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Energie Cottbus in 12%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Magdeburg 25%, Energie Cottbus 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for 1. FC Magdeburg and 100% for Energie Cottbus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Magdeburg keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / Energie Cottbus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Magdeburg play Energie Cottbus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 50% of Energie Cottbus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Magdeburg vs Energie Cottbus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of 1. FC Magdeburg's matches and 100% of Energie Cottbus's.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and Energie Cottbus tend to score early?
1. FC Magdeburg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Energie Cottbus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.