1. FC Köln 1-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Köln host Hamburger SV at RheinEnergieSTADION in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Köln — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Köln haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
1. FC Köln's home record at RheinEnergieSTADION: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hamburger SV stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hamburger SV haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Hamburger SV's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of 1. FC Köln's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 53% versus Hamburger SV 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 35% | Hamburger SV 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.31 xG and Hamburger SV 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Hamburger SV attack 1.061 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.377. Data: 0 1. FC Köln games / 34 Hamburger SV games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 30% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 46%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Hamburger SV 2.17. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Köln 40% | Hamburger SV 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: RheinEnergieSTADION • Kick-off: Friday 2 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 30% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.31 / Hamburger SV 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Hamburger SV attack 1.061 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Hamburger SV xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV kick off?
1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 2 August 2024 at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
1. FC Köln 1 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieSTADION.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV part of?
1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 30% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 46% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (0.85) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus 1. FC Köln's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
30%
3.37
24%
4.09
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.99
1.68
Hamburger SV xG
3.37
30%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
6%
18.08
12%
8.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 1.68 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Köln come into this having played 34 games, going 5W 12D 17L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. 1. FC Köln haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.71 PPG from 34 outings (17W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. Hamburger SV haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
1. FC Köln's home form reads 4W 4D 9L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.29 points per game from 17 outings (5W 7D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hamburger SV's season.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Köln are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.88 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Hamburger SV in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Pre-Season
Hamburger SV
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 5W 12D 17L in their last 34 games (0.79 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 17W 7D 10L in their last 34 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 0.94 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.29 PPG.
Have 1. FC Köln or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Nov 2025, when 1. FC Köln won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Köln's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
1. FC Köln
1
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV?
From 5 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Hamburger SV 2-1 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 47%, Hamburger SV 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (1. FC Köln) and 59% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln have failed to score in 47% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of 1. FC Köln's games and 65% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 59% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out 1. FC Köln 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Köln 1-2 at RheinEnergieSTADION, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.31 xG and Hamburger SV 1.68 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Hamburger SV attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 30% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 46%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 35%, Hamburger SV 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.