Rodez 3-0 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Quevilly at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rodez vs Quevilly fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Quevilly make the trip to Stade Paul Lignon to face Rodez in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Rodez (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Paul Lignon, Rodez have gone 1W 3D 2L this season (6 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.57 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.57 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Rodez against 0.90 for Quevilly. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Rodez — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Quevilly — key trading statistics (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rodez 38% versus Quevilly 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rodez 31% | Quevilly 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rodez 0.78 xG and Quevilly 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rodez attack 0.761 / defence 1.177 | Quevilly attack 0.911 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 0.922 / away 1.056. Rodez's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Rodez games / 13 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rodez 24% | Draw 34% | Quevilly 42%. Fair-value odds: Rodez 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Quevilly 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Quevilly as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Quevilly if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Rodez 33% | Quevilly 57%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rodez vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stade Paul Lignon • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rodez 24% | Draw 34% | Quevilly 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Rodez 0.78 / Quevilly 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Rodez attack 0.761 / def 1.177 | Quevilly attack 0.911 / def 1.117 | league avg home 0.922 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Quevilly (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Rodez xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Quevilly xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rodez vs Quevilly kick off?
Rodez vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stade Paul Lignon.
What was the final score in Rodez vs Quevilly?
Rodez 3 - 0 Quevilly.
Where is Rodez vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Paul Lignon.
What competition is Rodez vs Quevilly part of?
Rodez vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rodez vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Rodez a 24% chance of winning, Quevilly a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Quevilly the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rodez vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Rodez and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Rodez vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Quevilly?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rodez and Quevilly in?
Rodez (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Quevilly (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Rodez's attack at 0.76x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Quevilly's attack (0.91x) against Rodez's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Quevilly Win
24%
4.17
34%
2.98
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Rodez xG
Total xG
1.92
1.13
Quevilly xG
4.17
24%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.93
19%
5.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.7 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rodez vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.4%.
How many goals are Rodez and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Rodez and 1.13 for Quevilly, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Rodez vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rodez come into this having played 13 games, going 4W 4D 5L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Rodez against 1.23 for Quevilly. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Rodez's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.23 PPG overall record — Quevilly travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Quevilly come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rodez are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rodez
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rodez and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Rodez have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 games (1.23 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rodez at home or Quevilly away?
Quevilly's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rodez at home: 1.00 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Rodez or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rodez have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Quevilly in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 3-0 on 30 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rodez have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Quevilly — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Rodez
2
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rodez and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Rodez have won 2, Quevilly have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rodez and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Rodez 3-3 Quevilly.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Quevilly are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rodez 33%, Quevilly 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Rodez and 33% for Quevilly.
On the defensive side: Rodez keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Rodez have failed to score in 50% of games; Quevilly in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rodez home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rodez play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Rodez's recent matches and 50% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rodez vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Rodez's recent games and 33% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rodez and Quevilly tend to score early?
Rodez have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rodez run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Quevilly.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rodez beat Quevilly 3-0 at Stade Paul Lignon, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rodez 0.78 xG and Quevilly 1.13 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rodez beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Quevilly landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rodez attack 0.76 / defence 1.18 against Quevilly attack 0.91 / defence 1.12, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rodez 24% | Draw 34% | Quevilly 42%, with Quevilly to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Rodez win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rodez 31%, Quevilly 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rodez's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Quevilly's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rodez 1.23 PPG, Quevilly 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rodez win broke the near-deadlock. Rodez (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Quevilly (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.