RED Star FC 93 vs PAU – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RED Star FC 93 vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees PAU travel to Stade Bauer to take on RED Star FC 93. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RED Star FC 93 — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, RED Star FC 93 have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade Bauer — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, PAU have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — RED Star FC 93 at 1.70 PPG versus PAU's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for RED Star FC 93, 3 for PAU and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 0–3 with PAU winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
RED Star FC 93 in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
PAU in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 51% versus PAU 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 51% | PAU 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.99 xG and PAU 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.757 / defence 0.995 | PAU attack 0.978 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. RED Star FC 93's attack strength of 0.757 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 RED Star FC 93 games / 43 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 28% | Draw 29% | PAU 42%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | PAU 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAU are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAU offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: RED Star FC 93 50% | PAU 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Bauer • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 28% | Draw 29% | PAU 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG RED Star FC 93 0.99 / PAU 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.757 / def 0.995 | PAU attack 0.978 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: PAU (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.28
PAU xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs PAU kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs PAU is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Stade Bauer.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade Bauer.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs PAU is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 28% chance of winning, PAU a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
Record (4 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 0 | PAU 3W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and PAU in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. PAU (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.76) and PAU's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAU's attack versus RED Star FC 93's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
28%
3.55
29%
3.40
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.27
1.28
PAU xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
8%
12.79
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.28 for PAU, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
RED Star FC 93 come into this having played 43 games, going 20W 12D 11L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, PAU sit at 1.37 PPG from 43 outings (16W 11D 16L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RED Star FC 93 on 1.67 PPG, PAU on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
RED Star FC 93's home form reads 8W 8D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, PAU have taken 1.52 points per game from 21 outings (9W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.37 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
PAU
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and PAU in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while PAU have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or PAU away?
RED Star FC 93's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.52 PPG; PAU away: 1.52 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or PAU been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, PAU in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between RED Star FC 93 and PAU runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when PAU won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RED Star FC 93's record when hosting PAU specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 1, PAU have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when RED Star FC 93 0-3 PAU.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 52%, PAU 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (RED Star FC 93) and 62% (PAU).
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; PAU in 33%; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 52% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of RED Star FC 93's recent games and 62% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RED Star FC 93 and PAU tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, PAU in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.