RED Star FC 93 3-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp meet at Stade de Paris in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RED Star FC 93 have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for RED Star FC 93, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RED Star FC 93's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stade de Paris this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Guingamp arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for RED Star FC 93, 0 for Guingamp and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 4–3 with RED Star FC 93 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
RED Star FC 93 — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Guingamp — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RED Star FC 93 46% versus Guingamp 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RED Star FC 93 50% | Guingamp 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RED Star FC 93 0.97 xG and Guingamp 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.850 / defence 1.315 | Guingamp attack 1.244 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.059. Guingamp have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 RED Star FC 93 games / 62 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 21% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 55%. Fair-value odds: RED Star FC 93 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Guingamp 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: RED Star FC 93 50% | Guingamp 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade de Paris • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RED Star FC 93 21% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG RED Star FC 93 0.97 / Guingamp 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: RED Star FC 93 attack 0.850 / def 1.315 | Guingamp attack 1.244 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
RED Star FC 93 xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Guingamp xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp kick off?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at Stade de Paris.
What was the final score in RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
RED Star FC 93 3 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Paris.
What competition is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp part of?
RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives RED Star FC 93 a 21% chance of winning, Guingamp a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
Record (1 meetings): RED Star FC 93 1W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 0W.
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in?
RED Star FC 93 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RED Star FC 93's attack rating (0.85) and Guingamp's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.24x) against RED Star FC 93's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
21%
4.74
24%
4.22
55%
1.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
RED Star FC 93 xG
Total xG
2.70
1.73
Guingamp xG
4.74
21%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
1.81
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
4%
26.81
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.73 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, RED Star FC 93 have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 7W 5D 12L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for RED Star FC 93 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 12W 3D 9L from 24 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Guingamp are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against RED Star FC 93.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, RED Star FC 93 have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 5W 1D 5L from 11 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RED Star FC 93 are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.62 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RED Star FC 93
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp in coming into this match?
RED Star FC 93 have gone 7W 5D 12L in their last 24 games (1.08 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 12W 3D 9L in their last 24 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RED Star FC 93 at home or Guingamp away?
Guingamp's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RED Star FC 93 at home: 1.27 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.45 PPG.
Have RED Star FC 93 or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
RED Star FC 93 have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Guingamp in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
RED Star FC 93 have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: RED Star FC 93 won 0-4 on 23 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RED Star FC 93 have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
RED Star FC 93
0
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
From 4 meetings on record, RED Star FC 93 have won 4, Guingamp have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when RED Star FC 93 3-2 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp?
RED Star FC 93 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RED Star FC 93 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RED Star FC 93 46%, Guingamp 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (RED Star FC 93) and 54% (Guingamp). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: RED Star FC 93 keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; RED Star FC 93 have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RED Star FC 93 home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RED Star FC 93 play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of RED Star FC 93's recent matches and 54% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RED Star FC 93 vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of RED Star FC 93's matches and 54% of Guingamp's.
Do RED Star FC 93 and Guingamp tend to score early?
RED Star FC 93 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RED Star FC 93 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RED Star FC 93 beat Guingamp 3-1 at Stade de Paris, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RED Star FC 93 0.97 xG and Guingamp 1.73 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. RED Star FC 93 beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RED Star FC 93 attack 0.85 / defence 1.31 against Guingamp attack 1.24 / defence 0.95, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RED Star FC 93 21% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 55%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a RED Star FC 93 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RED Star FC 93 50%, Guingamp 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RED Star FC 93's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Guingamp arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with RED Star FC 93 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. RED Star FC 93 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.