Paris FC 2-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Paris FC at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Paris FC vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Quevilly at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2 (matchday 19). Kick-off is Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Paris FC have gone 6W 2D 2L — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Paris FC have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Quevilly stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Quevilly have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Paris FC have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Paris FC, 1 for Quevilly and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended Paris FC 1–3 Quevilly — a Quevilly win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 43% versus Quevilly 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 45% | Quevilly 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.52 xG and Quevilly 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.027 / defence 0.943 | Quevilly attack 1.102 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.126. Quevilly's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Paris FC's projected output up. Data: built from Paris FC's last 56 games and Quevilly's last 56.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.21 | Draw 3.88 | Quevilly 3.44. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Paris FC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Paris FC's last 10 home games and Quevilly's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Paris FC 20% (last 10 home games) | Quevilly 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Paris FC 1.52 / Quevilly 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.027 / def 0.943 | Quevilly attack 1.102 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Quevilly xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Quevilly FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Quevilly kick off?
Paris FC vs Quevilly kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Paris FC 2 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is Paris FC vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Quevilly part of?
Paris FC vs Quevilly is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 45% chance of winning, Quevilly a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Paris FC and Quevilly will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris FC vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.03) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 56 games and Quevilly's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.88
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.69
1.17
Quevilly xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
6%
15.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Quevilly Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.17 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Paris FC come into this having played 56 games, going 23W 12D 21L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.18 PPG from 56 outings (15W 21D 20L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.45 PPG, Quevilly on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Paris FC's home form reads 12W 4D 12L across their last 28 home games, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 28 away games (7W 9D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.25 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Quevilly (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Quevilly Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 23W 12D 21L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 15W 21D 20L in their last 56 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Quevilly away?
Paris FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.43 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Quevilly in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Feb 2022, when Paris FC won Paris FC 3-0 Quevilly.
Paris FC's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Paris FC
2
Draws
1
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Quevilly H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Quevilly?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 3, Quevilly have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Quevilly last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 February 2024: Quevilly 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Quevilly?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 39%, Quevilly 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Paris FC) and 43% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Quevilly in 36%; Paris FC have failed to score in 29% of games; Quevilly in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Quevilly Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Quevilly matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Paris FC's recent matches and 39% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris FC and Quevilly matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Paris FC's recent games and 43% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Quevilly matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Paris FC's recent matches and 57% of Quevilly's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Paris FC and Quevilly share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 19, as Paris FC and Quevilly drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.52 xG and Quevilly 1.17 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Quevilly attack 1.10 / defence 1.22, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 45% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 29%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 45%, Quevilly 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Quevilly's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.45 PPG, Quevilly 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Paris FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 19
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →